Ayr Gold Cup 2011

The first thing I look to do when analysing a big-field handicap is to establish 'where the pace is' in the field. Is there a horse or group of horses that will lead the field and if so, which side of the course are they drawn.

You can expect to hear LIGHT FROM MARS (2), PEPPER LANE (11), ETON RIFLES (16) and BELOW ZERO (23) all mentioned early in commentary as all like to cut out the running. Unfortunately, as you can see, they are drawn right across the course, but with Light From Mars suited by further than this 6 furlong dash, I expect him to be swallowed up earlier than the rest by genuine sprinters, even if the soft ground at Ayr blunts the speed of a few of these. Marginal preference then for mid-to-high drawn horses but this is not of paramount importance.

Next I look for horses that look to be ahead of the handicapper, whether through maturity (i.e young or lightly raced) or are improving based on recent form. Unfortunately, the flip-side to the former is that a lightly-raced animal also lacks the necessary 'savvy' to cope with the hustle and bustle of a big field like this, so something like MAYSON, with only 7 career starts to his name, lacks form in a big-field like this and is not for me, despite this representing the red-hot Hanagan / Fahey jockey / trainer combination.

I'd rule out MAJESTIC MYLES, WAFFLE, GROUP THERAPY and DARAJAAT too for this reason and also joint-favourite PEPPER LANE as we've established, will not have her own way out in front either this time and its rare that a horse wins four handicaps on the trot as she is attempting - the handicapper is a vicious bastard in these circumstances!

The other possible favourite, MACS POWER may well still be improving based on runs in the Stewards Cup and last time out at Ascot but for me he is something of an 'excuse' horse - drawn on the wrong side (as he arguably is again today), finding trouble in running, not suited by the pace of races etc - all when sent off at very cramped odds. The punting mob love a good sob-story and at odds of around 10/1 I'm happy to assume he'll flatter to deceive again today.

COLONEL MAK could well still be on the upgrade after a smooth win at Ffos Las last time, in similar soggy conditions to today. His midfield draw and trainer form temper enthusiasm with this punter however.

One that looks to have been trained to peak for this race is HAWKEYETHENOO, who would be a popular Scottish-trained winner if he does oblige today. This is only his fourth visit to a racecourse this season and he inevitably goes well in these cavalry charges, however he is 4lbs higher than last year when he could only come 15th and has a 3lb claimer as his pilot today too - I prefer experience in the saddle in a competitive event like this.

CROISULTAN may be drawn on the wrong side, but he was third in a Group race in Ireland last week and any further rain would make him a definite player. He has dropped in the weights after a string of merely okayish runs over the wrong distance (7 furlongs and a mile even - this is strictly a 6 furlongs beast) on midsummer ground, but keep an eye on the skies and be prepared to dive in if the ground worsens from good-to-soft.

I don't want this to turn into a 'Spotlight' article, where every protagonist gets a mention and their merits discussed. So let's focus on the one that's of of interest to me.

PASTORAL PLAYER was third on soft ground in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, off a similar mark to today. He again ran well in the Stewards Cup and has ran with credit over an extra furlong in his last two races. Returned to 6 furlongs today, which is surely his optimum trip, he remains still relatively unexposed with just 17 career starts and all ground seems to come alike to him. He is a solid character to have on your side in a race of so many imponderables like this. Keep it simple - go with the solid selection, who you think is well drawn, proven on the ground, over the trip, in big fields, who is well-handicapped and with scope for still further improvement with a trainer that knows the time of day. A 16/1 price is value to me - how stupid or inspired will that look at 3.30 today?