Seven furlongs is a real 'specialists' distance, extending the stamina of the sprinters but proving too sharp for the milers. This 18-runner event should prove to be a real cavalry charge with no prisoners taken so it's a useful starting point when narrowing the field to toss out those that have not won over today's trip.
So goodbye ETON FOREVER, JOE PACKET, PASTORAL PLAYER and PARISIAN PYRAMID.
Something of a ballsy call this as the first three above are well to the fore in the betting market and with Pastoral Player being my selection for the Ayr Gold Cup (see this blog from two weeks ago) where he came from a mile back over 6 furlongs to be within inches of fourth, the temptation is to think today's longer trip should suit and he is clearly in form.
However, eyecatchers at the finish of a race have invariably made errors earlier in the race, generally being denied a run when the race hots up. These 'hard luck stories' can be tempting to follow time and again, but every race is a different set of circumstances and has to be evaluated in isolation. The notion of 'winning back losses' on a horse or following a perceived 'unlucky loser' for you last time out, for fear of 'missing out this time' is lazy thinking.
Sermon over!
If he is to break his duck over 7 furlongs, Pastoral Player does have one other thing in his favour - I can see all the action unfolding down the near (stands) side, with 'pace' horses such as NASRI and BELOW ZERO leading them a merry dance from stalls 18 and 17. Of those drawn low only WEBBOW seems to enjoy being up at the head of affairs.
This presents an interesting quandary as those that look well-handicapped (SMARTY SOCKS, JOE PACKET, GOLDEN DESERT and the unexposed ETON FOREVER) are all drawn away from the stands rail. So do I go with my pace analysis, which I conduct on every one of these big-field handicaps I analyse and which gives an angle many punters are too lazy to unearth. Or do I go with those showing good recent form and who, in my opinion and on my own handicap figures, look to have a few pounds in hand?
Well, it's a bit of both and you come up what you believe is an animal that can outrun it's (long) odds in the shape of ATLANTIC SPORT
He has a high enough draw to figure, if my reading of the pace of the race is correct. He is winless for three years which is an obvious negative, but has shown something of a return to form in his last couple of races, when 5th over course-and-distance on his penultimate outing, before running second to NASRI over 6 furlongs on soft ground at Hamilton last time out. That was off today's mark of 96 but he was mixing it in Group company of rating's 10lbs higher last season. He goes well in these 7 furlong big field races at Ascot (he was fifth again, of a 4lb higher mark, in a field of 23 in the big International Handicap raced on King George day here back in July). He's currently trading at £6 to place on Betfair, so a cheeky each-way punt there or at 25/1 with Ladbrokes is the play for me.
***********************
Although this blog looks at Handicap races, it's very much concerned with turning in a profit, so I'm putting up RELIABLE MAN at 12/1 (or best English bookmaker prices tomorrow) for The Arc de Triomphe.
A course and distance winner, seeing the racecourse for only the sixth time in his career yet already showing enough street-smarts to weave through a big field to win the French Derby, he's a high-class three year old receiving weight from his elders and, to cap it all, looks well drawn as opposed to some of the market leaders who'll be trying a stats-busting win from a draw out in the Bois de Boulogne!
I can't see why he is drifting in the betting. Concerns over fast ground maybe, but there will be a beautiful cover of grass at Longchamp to take out any jar in the ground and he's by Dalakhani whose progeny have an above average strike rate on good-to-firm ground, so there's no worries from this quarter.
No comments:
Post a Comment