It's 4.13 in the morning and I've just spent the last 45 minutes writing the blog.
Came up with some penetrating insights, righteous truths, rib-tickling bon-mots and a crackerjack tip. Spell checked it, pressed 'Publish Post' - and the whole thing disappeared into cyberspace, never to be seen again.
You'll have trust me (as I can't be arsed writing it all over again) that DUSTER was a well-researched selection.
Get on each-way. Bed awaits.
Friday, 14 October 2011
Friday, 30 September 2011
Ascot 3.50 - Totescoop 6 Challenge Cup
Seven furlongs is a real 'specialists' distance, extending the stamina of the sprinters but proving too sharp for the milers. This 18-runner event should prove to be a real cavalry charge with no prisoners taken so it's a useful starting point when narrowing the field to toss out those that have not won over today's trip.
So goodbye ETON FOREVER, JOE PACKET, PASTORAL PLAYER and PARISIAN PYRAMID.
Something of a ballsy call this as the first three above are well to the fore in the betting market and with Pastoral Player being my selection for the Ayr Gold Cup (see this blog from two weeks ago) where he came from a mile back over 6 furlongs to be within inches of fourth, the temptation is to think today's longer trip should suit and he is clearly in form.
However, eyecatchers at the finish of a race have invariably made errors earlier in the race, generally being denied a run when the race hots up. These 'hard luck stories' can be tempting to follow time and again, but every race is a different set of circumstances and has to be evaluated in isolation. The notion of 'winning back losses' on a horse or following a perceived 'unlucky loser' for you last time out, for fear of 'missing out this time' is lazy thinking.
Sermon over!
If he is to break his duck over 7 furlongs, Pastoral Player does have one other thing in his favour - I can see all the action unfolding down the near (stands) side, with 'pace' horses such as NASRI and BELOW ZERO leading them a merry dance from stalls 18 and 17. Of those drawn low only WEBBOW seems to enjoy being up at the head of affairs.
This presents an interesting quandary as those that look well-handicapped (SMARTY SOCKS, JOE PACKET, GOLDEN DESERT and the unexposed ETON FOREVER) are all drawn away from the stands rail. So do I go with my pace analysis, which I conduct on every one of these big-field handicaps I analyse and which gives an angle many punters are too lazy to unearth. Or do I go with those showing good recent form and who, in my opinion and on my own handicap figures, look to have a few pounds in hand?
Well, it's a bit of both and you come up what you believe is an animal that can outrun it's (long) odds in the shape of ATLANTIC SPORT
He has a high enough draw to figure, if my reading of the pace of the race is correct. He is winless for three years which is an obvious negative, but has shown something of a return to form in his last couple of races, when 5th over course-and-distance on his penultimate outing, before running second to NASRI over 6 furlongs on soft ground at Hamilton last time out. That was off today's mark of 96 but he was mixing it in Group company of rating's 10lbs higher last season. He goes well in these 7 furlong big field races at Ascot (he was fifth again, of a 4lb higher mark, in a field of 23 in the big International Handicap raced on King George day here back in July). He's currently trading at £6 to place on Betfair, so a cheeky each-way punt there or at 25/1 with Ladbrokes is the play for me.
***********************
Although this blog looks at Handicap races, it's very much concerned with turning in a profit, so I'm putting up RELIABLE MAN at 12/1 (or best English bookmaker prices tomorrow) for The Arc de Triomphe.
A course and distance winner, seeing the racecourse for only the sixth time in his career yet already showing enough street-smarts to weave through a big field to win the French Derby, he's a high-class three year old receiving weight from his elders and, to cap it all, looks well drawn as opposed to some of the market leaders who'll be trying a stats-busting win from a draw out in the Bois de Boulogne!
I can't see why he is drifting in the betting. Concerns over fast ground maybe, but there will be a beautiful cover of grass at Longchamp to take out any jar in the ground and he's by Dalakhani whose progeny have an above average strike rate on good-to-firm ground, so there's no worries from this quarter.
So goodbye ETON FOREVER, JOE PACKET, PASTORAL PLAYER and PARISIAN PYRAMID.
Something of a ballsy call this as the first three above are well to the fore in the betting market and with Pastoral Player being my selection for the Ayr Gold Cup (see this blog from two weeks ago) where he came from a mile back over 6 furlongs to be within inches of fourth, the temptation is to think today's longer trip should suit and he is clearly in form.
However, eyecatchers at the finish of a race have invariably made errors earlier in the race, generally being denied a run when the race hots up. These 'hard luck stories' can be tempting to follow time and again, but every race is a different set of circumstances and has to be evaluated in isolation. The notion of 'winning back losses' on a horse or following a perceived 'unlucky loser' for you last time out, for fear of 'missing out this time' is lazy thinking.
Sermon over!
If he is to break his duck over 7 furlongs, Pastoral Player does have one other thing in his favour - I can see all the action unfolding down the near (stands) side, with 'pace' horses such as NASRI and BELOW ZERO leading them a merry dance from stalls 18 and 17. Of those drawn low only WEBBOW seems to enjoy being up at the head of affairs.
This presents an interesting quandary as those that look well-handicapped (SMARTY SOCKS, JOE PACKET, GOLDEN DESERT and the unexposed ETON FOREVER) are all drawn away from the stands rail. So do I go with my pace analysis, which I conduct on every one of these big-field handicaps I analyse and which gives an angle many punters are too lazy to unearth. Or do I go with those showing good recent form and who, in my opinion and on my own handicap figures, look to have a few pounds in hand?
Well, it's a bit of both and you come up what you believe is an animal that can outrun it's (long) odds in the shape of ATLANTIC SPORT
He has a high enough draw to figure, if my reading of the pace of the race is correct. He is winless for three years which is an obvious negative, but has shown something of a return to form in his last couple of races, when 5th over course-and-distance on his penultimate outing, before running second to NASRI over 6 furlongs on soft ground at Hamilton last time out. That was off today's mark of 96 but he was mixing it in Group company of rating's 10lbs higher last season. He goes well in these 7 furlong big field races at Ascot (he was fifth again, of a 4lb higher mark, in a field of 23 in the big International Handicap raced on King George day here back in July). He's currently trading at £6 to place on Betfair, so a cheeky each-way punt there or at 25/1 with Ladbrokes is the play for me.
***********************
Although this blog looks at Handicap races, it's very much concerned with turning in a profit, so I'm putting up RELIABLE MAN at 12/1 (or best English bookmaker prices tomorrow) for The Arc de Triomphe.
A course and distance winner, seeing the racecourse for only the sixth time in his career yet already showing enough street-smarts to weave through a big field to win the French Derby, he's a high-class three year old receiving weight from his elders and, to cap it all, looks well drawn as opposed to some of the market leaders who'll be trying a stats-busting win from a draw out in the Bois de Boulogne!
I can't see why he is drifting in the betting. Concerns over fast ground maybe, but there will be a beautiful cover of grass at Longchamp to take out any jar in the ground and he's by Dalakhani whose progeny have an above average strike rate on good-to-firm ground, so there's no worries from this quarter.
Friday, 23 September 2011
The Cambridgeshire Handicap
The Cambridgeshire is the most difficult handicap raced on British soil, over jumps or on the flat - Period.
The huge field (topped only by The Grand National), coupled with the unusual race distance of 1 mile and 1 furlong makes this the knottiest of problems for punters. Our own little Everest, finding the winner of which will bring you far less praise and recognition, but will leave you with no less of a glow.
I've been at the rockface (to slaughter the metaphor yet further) on this one since final declarations came out on Thursday, looking for angles, looking for reasons to oppose certain horses, but of course, paragraph one still applies no matter what and there are still many imponderables - unexposed youngsters, a couple of foreign raiders, one sent over from Ireland by handicap-king Tony Martin, a few stepping up in distance, a few running in a huge field for the first time.....questions, questions.
Okay, the 'pace' looks to be predominantly low drawn, with MARAHEB (8), CIRCUMVENT (10) and CONSTANT CONTACT (15) all likely to be racing prominently. Although yesterday's Silver Cambridgeshire produced a winner from stall one, it's as well not to get too carried away with history - the higher drawn horses acquitted themselves well, however today, I can only see CROWN COUNSEL from stall 29 putting pedal to the metal down the stands side and I'm ruling out anything higher than that as I can't see them getting much of a tow in comparison with the far side and middle.
Plenty will be looking for an unexposed youngster who is a potential Group class animal in the future, but leaving aside that from memory only Lear Spear and Halling of recent winners, have gone on to mix it in the upper echelons of racing, 'unexposed' in a race like this, equates to 'inexperienced'. I want to be against the likes of favourite DARE TO DANCE (3 career starts and possibly needs it softer), MAQARAAT (5 starts), CRY FURY (5 starts) and QUESTIONING (7 starts) due to their lack of street-smarts in a huge field like this. A bold move perhaps but recent winners like CREDIT SWAP (back again this year but ruled out on the basis of going preference, trainer form and now being 7lb higher in the weights), Supaseus, Spanish Don, Beauchamp Pilot and I Cried For You were hardly babes in arms.
It would be foolish however to ignore the effect of weight in a race of this nature. You do need to be not only in form, but also lightly weighted, or at least, not burdened with to much baggage - Beauchamp Pilot humped 9-5 to victory but that was in 2002 and I'm happy to set that weight as my ceiling above which I'm prepared to ignore the likes of course specialist PROPONENT, Detorri's mount MAN OF ACTION (who falls down on the experience factor too) and other old favourites in these cavalry charges such as NANTON and PINTURA.
PIRES will have his supporters based on his trainer, however I can't have him on his form in big fields. He's only ever won in fields of 8 or less and whilst 9 furlongs on decent ground looks right up his street, I'm happy to assume he will be overbet and ignore him.
Having whittled the field down to a more manageable size with the above filters, it's now a question of looking for the positives: an animal showing good recent form, who can act on the (good-to-firm) ground, who has form in a big field and with scope to improve still further and who is trained by someone who can extract that necessary improvement.
Say hello to SAGRAMOR.
Toss out his last run, where he was found to be lame in both hind legs post-race (and Goodwood's undulations are no place for a horse with such an ailment) and you have an animal with very compelling credentials.
Although with only 8 career starts, he has proven his experience in a big-field, straight-course handicap where they go hell-for-leather, in taking the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot in June. That was on rain-softened ground but he won on good ground in a 17 runner field prior to that at Haydock and whilst you could crab his credentials racing over 9 furlongs for the first time, he has not been stopping at the end of his races over a mile. He is with Hughie Morrison who trained Supaseus to win this race in 2009 and has had just the three starts this season, so comes here fresh. He's available at 16/1 to good money with Betfair as I write and has traded at a couple of points higher than that already.
At bigger odds (32/1 for buttons on Betfair at present) MARKAZZI has plenty going for him.
By his own high standards Sir Michael Stoute has had a poor season and is bumbling along at a current strike rate of only 10%. However you don't become a bad trainer in a season and (beside his price) there is plenty to like about this one.
Set to carry 8-13 he is another lightly raced improver, who has experience in big-field handicaps of this nature, coming 3rd in a 19 runner race on the July Course here in the summer, before going on to win at Haydock against 15 rivals. Last time he was a far-from-disappointing fifth of 18 on rain-softened ground at York. Promising over 10 furlongs on his reappearance at Sandown in June, stamina doubts can be put to rest and he looks to have put last year's 'annus horribilis' behind him thanks to the time honoured cure-all of having his knackers cut off over the winter.
Maybe the draw is against him but this is only a 'marginal' and is factored into his price - each-way if you must!
The huge field (topped only by The Grand National), coupled with the unusual race distance of 1 mile and 1 furlong makes this the knottiest of problems for punters. Our own little Everest, finding the winner of which will bring you far less praise and recognition, but will leave you with no less of a glow.
I've been at the rockface (to slaughter the metaphor yet further) on this one since final declarations came out on Thursday, looking for angles, looking for reasons to oppose certain horses, but of course, paragraph one still applies no matter what and there are still many imponderables - unexposed youngsters, a couple of foreign raiders, one sent over from Ireland by handicap-king Tony Martin, a few stepping up in distance, a few running in a huge field for the first time.....questions, questions.
Okay, the 'pace' looks to be predominantly low drawn, with MARAHEB (8), CIRCUMVENT (10) and CONSTANT CONTACT (15) all likely to be racing prominently. Although yesterday's Silver Cambridgeshire produced a winner from stall one, it's as well not to get too carried away with history - the higher drawn horses acquitted themselves well, however today, I can only see CROWN COUNSEL from stall 29 putting pedal to the metal down the stands side and I'm ruling out anything higher than that as I can't see them getting much of a tow in comparison with the far side and middle.
Plenty will be looking for an unexposed youngster who is a potential Group class animal in the future, but leaving aside that from memory only Lear Spear and Halling of recent winners, have gone on to mix it in the upper echelons of racing, 'unexposed' in a race like this, equates to 'inexperienced'. I want to be against the likes of favourite DARE TO DANCE (3 career starts and possibly needs it softer), MAQARAAT (5 starts), CRY FURY (5 starts) and QUESTIONING (7 starts) due to their lack of street-smarts in a huge field like this. A bold move perhaps but recent winners like CREDIT SWAP (back again this year but ruled out on the basis of going preference, trainer form and now being 7lb higher in the weights), Supaseus, Spanish Don, Beauchamp Pilot and I Cried For You were hardly babes in arms.
It would be foolish however to ignore the effect of weight in a race of this nature. You do need to be not only in form, but also lightly weighted, or at least, not burdened with to much baggage - Beauchamp Pilot humped 9-5 to victory but that was in 2002 and I'm happy to set that weight as my ceiling above which I'm prepared to ignore the likes of course specialist PROPONENT, Detorri's mount MAN OF ACTION (who falls down on the experience factor too) and other old favourites in these cavalry charges such as NANTON and PINTURA.
PIRES will have his supporters based on his trainer, however I can't have him on his form in big fields. He's only ever won in fields of 8 or less and whilst 9 furlongs on decent ground looks right up his street, I'm happy to assume he will be overbet and ignore him.
Having whittled the field down to a more manageable size with the above filters, it's now a question of looking for the positives: an animal showing good recent form, who can act on the (good-to-firm) ground, who has form in a big field and with scope to improve still further and who is trained by someone who can extract that necessary improvement.
Say hello to SAGRAMOR.
Toss out his last run, where he was found to be lame in both hind legs post-race (and Goodwood's undulations are no place for a horse with such an ailment) and you have an animal with very compelling credentials.
Although with only 8 career starts, he has proven his experience in a big-field, straight-course handicap where they go hell-for-leather, in taking the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot in June. That was on rain-softened ground but he won on good ground in a 17 runner field prior to that at Haydock and whilst you could crab his credentials racing over 9 furlongs for the first time, he has not been stopping at the end of his races over a mile. He is with Hughie Morrison who trained Supaseus to win this race in 2009 and has had just the three starts this season, so comes here fresh. He's available at 16/1 to good money with Betfair as I write and has traded at a couple of points higher than that already.
At bigger odds (32/1 for buttons on Betfair at present) MARKAZZI has plenty going for him.
By his own high standards Sir Michael Stoute has had a poor season and is bumbling along at a current strike rate of only 10%. However you don't become a bad trainer in a season and (beside his price) there is plenty to like about this one.
Set to carry 8-13 he is another lightly raced improver, who has experience in big-field handicaps of this nature, coming 3rd in a 19 runner race on the July Course here in the summer, before going on to win at Haydock against 15 rivals. Last time he was a far-from-disappointing fifth of 18 on rain-softened ground at York. Promising over 10 furlongs on his reappearance at Sandown in June, stamina doubts can be put to rest and he looks to have put last year's 'annus horribilis' behind him thanks to the time honoured cure-all of having his knackers cut off over the winter.
Maybe the draw is against him but this is only a 'marginal' and is factored into his price - each-way if you must!
Friday, 16 September 2011
Ayr Gold Cup 2011
The first thing I look to do when analysing a big-field handicap is to establish 'where the pace is' in the field. Is there a horse or group of horses that will lead the field and if so, which side of the course are they drawn.
You can expect to hear LIGHT FROM MARS (2), PEPPER LANE (11), ETON RIFLES (16) and BELOW ZERO (23) all mentioned early in commentary as all like to cut out the running. Unfortunately, as you can see, they are drawn right across the course, but with Light From Mars suited by further than this 6 furlong dash, I expect him to be swallowed up earlier than the rest by genuine sprinters, even if the soft ground at Ayr blunts the speed of a few of these. Marginal preference then for mid-to-high drawn horses but this is not of paramount importance.
Next I look for horses that look to be ahead of the handicapper, whether through maturity (i.e young or lightly raced) or are improving based on recent form. Unfortunately, the flip-side to the former is that a lightly-raced animal also lacks the necessary 'savvy' to cope with the hustle and bustle of a big field like this, so something like MAYSON, with only 7 career starts to his name, lacks form in a big-field like this and is not for me, despite this representing the red-hot Hanagan / Fahey jockey / trainer combination.
I'd rule out MAJESTIC MYLES, WAFFLE, GROUP THERAPY and DARAJAAT too for this reason and also joint-favourite PEPPER LANE as we've established, will not have her own way out in front either this time and its rare that a horse wins four handicaps on the trot as she is attempting - the handicapper is a vicious bastard in these circumstances!
The other possible favourite, MACS POWER may well still be improving based on runs in the Stewards Cup and last time out at Ascot but for me he is something of an 'excuse' horse - drawn on the wrong side (as he arguably is again today), finding trouble in running, not suited by the pace of races etc - all when sent off at very cramped odds. The punting mob love a good sob-story and at odds of around 10/1 I'm happy to assume he'll flatter to deceive again today.
COLONEL MAK could well still be on the upgrade after a smooth win at Ffos Las last time, in similar soggy conditions to today. His midfield draw and trainer form temper enthusiasm with this punter however.
One that looks to have been trained to peak for this race is HAWKEYETHENOO, who would be a popular Scottish-trained winner if he does oblige today. This is only his fourth visit to a racecourse this season and he inevitably goes well in these cavalry charges, however he is 4lbs higher than last year when he could only come 15th and has a 3lb claimer as his pilot today too - I prefer experience in the saddle in a competitive event like this.
CROISULTAN may be drawn on the wrong side, but he was third in a Group race in Ireland last week and any further rain would make him a definite player. He has dropped in the weights after a string of merely okayish runs over the wrong distance (7 furlongs and a mile even - this is strictly a 6 furlongs beast) on midsummer ground, but keep an eye on the skies and be prepared to dive in if the ground worsens from good-to-soft.
I don't want this to turn into a 'Spotlight' article, where every protagonist gets a mention and their merits discussed. So let's focus on the one that's of of interest to me.
PASTORAL PLAYER was third on soft ground in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, off a similar mark to today. He again ran well in the Stewards Cup and has ran with credit over an extra furlong in his last two races. Returned to 6 furlongs today, which is surely his optimum trip, he remains still relatively unexposed with just 17 career starts and all ground seems to come alike to him. He is a solid character to have on your side in a race of so many imponderables like this. Keep it simple - go with the solid selection, who you think is well drawn, proven on the ground, over the trip, in big fields, who is well-handicapped and with scope for still further improvement with a trainer that knows the time of day. A 16/1 price is value to me - how stupid or inspired will that look at 3.30 today?
You can expect to hear LIGHT FROM MARS (2), PEPPER LANE (11), ETON RIFLES (16) and BELOW ZERO (23) all mentioned early in commentary as all like to cut out the running. Unfortunately, as you can see, they are drawn right across the course, but with Light From Mars suited by further than this 6 furlong dash, I expect him to be swallowed up earlier than the rest by genuine sprinters, even if the soft ground at Ayr blunts the speed of a few of these. Marginal preference then for mid-to-high drawn horses but this is not of paramount importance.
Next I look for horses that look to be ahead of the handicapper, whether through maturity (i.e young or lightly raced) or are improving based on recent form. Unfortunately, the flip-side to the former is that a lightly-raced animal also lacks the necessary 'savvy' to cope with the hustle and bustle of a big field like this, so something like MAYSON, with only 7 career starts to his name, lacks form in a big-field like this and is not for me, despite this representing the red-hot Hanagan / Fahey jockey / trainer combination.
I'd rule out MAJESTIC MYLES, WAFFLE, GROUP THERAPY and DARAJAAT too for this reason and also joint-favourite PEPPER LANE as we've established, will not have her own way out in front either this time and its rare that a horse wins four handicaps on the trot as she is attempting - the handicapper is a vicious bastard in these circumstances!
The other possible favourite, MACS POWER may well still be improving based on runs in the Stewards Cup and last time out at Ascot but for me he is something of an 'excuse' horse - drawn on the wrong side (as he arguably is again today), finding trouble in running, not suited by the pace of races etc - all when sent off at very cramped odds. The punting mob love a good sob-story and at odds of around 10/1 I'm happy to assume he'll flatter to deceive again today.
COLONEL MAK could well still be on the upgrade after a smooth win at Ffos Las last time, in similar soggy conditions to today. His midfield draw and trainer form temper enthusiasm with this punter however.
One that looks to have been trained to peak for this race is HAWKEYETHENOO, who would be a popular Scottish-trained winner if he does oblige today. This is only his fourth visit to a racecourse this season and he inevitably goes well in these cavalry charges, however he is 4lbs higher than last year when he could only come 15th and has a 3lb claimer as his pilot today too - I prefer experience in the saddle in a competitive event like this.
CROISULTAN may be drawn on the wrong side, but he was third in a Group race in Ireland last week and any further rain would make him a definite player. He has dropped in the weights after a string of merely okayish runs over the wrong distance (7 furlongs and a mile even - this is strictly a 6 furlongs beast) on midsummer ground, but keep an eye on the skies and be prepared to dive in if the ground worsens from good-to-soft.
I don't want this to turn into a 'Spotlight' article, where every protagonist gets a mention and their merits discussed. So let's focus on the one that's of of interest to me.
PASTORAL PLAYER was third on soft ground in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, off a similar mark to today. He again ran well in the Stewards Cup and has ran with credit over an extra furlong in his last two races. Returned to 6 furlongs today, which is surely his optimum trip, he remains still relatively unexposed with just 17 career starts and all ground seems to come alike to him. He is a solid character to have on your side in a race of so many imponderables like this. Keep it simple - go with the solid selection, who you think is well drawn, proven on the ground, over the trip, in big fields, who is well-handicapped and with scope for still further improvement with a trainer that knows the time of day. A 16/1 price is value to me - how stupid or inspired will that look at 3.30 today?
Tuesday, 13 September 2011
Punching Admiral Rous
A bit of history
Admiral Henry Rous was an 19th Century Naval Officer. The minutae of his naval career I will leave to the completists and Wikipedia. The vital legacy of Rous' life was his introduction of the 'Weight-For-Age' (WFA) scale to British racing, which has remained largely untouched for over 100 years.
The basic idea of WFA is to even out racehorses (theoretical) performances by allocating them different weights to carry based on their age. Put simply, younger horses in the early part of a racing season, will carry less weight than older horses. This discrepancy will be less marked as the season progresses and as horses mature. Rous experimented with weights until he arrived at a relationship between age and maturity, expressed in terms of weight. His original scale has undergone only minor alterations since his work in the 1860s.
Riveting so far - it will get lighter soon, so 'bear with....'
THE WFA scale is the basis of a handicap that, theoretically, should ensure that horses ability are evened out in a race. WFA in its purest form is used predomionantly in major (Group) races throughout the world, where horses of different ages race against each other.
Such races are, by definition, the cream of the racing calendar. For 95% (at a guess) of the rest of the horsey world, they are going to be competing in 'Handicap' Races, where not only WFA rules the roost in terms of attempting to even out ability, but also a weight allocated to them by the official handicapper, appointed by the Jockey Club (for racing in the UK).
The basics of handicap racing is this - the better a horse, the more weight it has to carry in a race. The goal of the Official Handicapper is to have every handicap race finish in a dead-heat (i.e proving that he has bought together exactly, the ability of every horse in said race).
...and the goal of every trainer, owner, stable boy and jockey is to try to hoodwink, hide (uner a lead-lined bushel in some cases) and generally muck up the handicappers ability to rate a horse accurately, until the glorious day when Dobbin metamorphs into Pegasus and wins not only the prize money in the race (ludicrously small, but no one is forcing anyone to become a racehorse owner) but also land a right good punt for all the connections.
...and it's the goal of this blog to decipher the bullshit and the skullduggery, the flannel and the blather and make money out of betting in UK handicap races!
Why Handicap Races?
Because at heart I want it all or die trying. I want to walk out of a race either potless or (metaphorically) lighting a Havana with tenners. Nickel and Diming a couple of quid profit backing odds-on favourites appeals to me about as much as playing naked leapfrog with a Unicorn.
Handicap racing is, by definition, close fought and competitive. Extrapolate this to the betting market and it means that the punter will generally have the opportunity to back horses at bigger odds than in straightforward WFA Conditions races. Whilst I will wax lyrical about One Man's Champion Chase, or Persian Punch's last Jockey Club Cup or Frankels astonishing 2000 Guineas, these races stirred the soul - and I didn't have a penny on any of the winners or other protagonists!
I spent the evenings beforehand in several hours of form study on The Coral Cup, The Cesarewitch or The Suffolk Handicap. Why? Because everyone (especially clued-up punters) knows everything about the big races and the betting market reflects this.
But for somone prepared to delve around in the form of the handicaps, he might just come up with an angle that will put him onto a double-figure priced winner, that means he leaves the course with severel hundred quid in his pocket, a glow of satisfaction that he's sorted out a most complex of puzzles.....and has given Admiral Rous a punch in the kisser!
The Blog
Enough self-aggrandising old pony and trap - the practicalities.
I will attempt to publish my thoughts on the big Saturday Handicap races by 10.00 hrs on A Saturday morning. I will also attempt to do the same for big midweek handicap races at the festivals dotted throughout the year.
The key word is 'attempt'. I've got a family and a business to run. I get tired. I go out. I get ill.
But when I commit myself to print, it will be honest opinions and they will be the result of diligent research for up to several hours. Why? Because I cannot bear to be slapdash when it comes to punting.
Also, as I'm a mouthy gobshite, musical snob, lover of a good argument, there will be postings on any other area of life I fancy taking a tilt at. Feel free to have a go back. I'll never criticise anyone's right to an opinion, just the quality of thought behind it.
Okay me breddrin - here we go.....
Admiral Henry Rous was an 19th Century Naval Officer. The minutae of his naval career I will leave to the completists and Wikipedia. The vital legacy of Rous' life was his introduction of the 'Weight-For-Age' (WFA) scale to British racing, which has remained largely untouched for over 100 years.
The basic idea of WFA is to even out racehorses (theoretical) performances by allocating them different weights to carry based on their age. Put simply, younger horses in the early part of a racing season, will carry less weight than older horses. This discrepancy will be less marked as the season progresses and as horses mature. Rous experimented with weights until he arrived at a relationship between age and maturity, expressed in terms of weight. His original scale has undergone only minor alterations since his work in the 1860s.
Riveting so far - it will get lighter soon, so 'bear with....'
THE WFA scale is the basis of a handicap that, theoretically, should ensure that horses ability are evened out in a race. WFA in its purest form is used predomionantly in major (Group) races throughout the world, where horses of different ages race against each other.
Such races are, by definition, the cream of the racing calendar. For 95% (at a guess) of the rest of the horsey world, they are going to be competing in 'Handicap' Races, where not only WFA rules the roost in terms of attempting to even out ability, but also a weight allocated to them by the official handicapper, appointed by the Jockey Club (for racing in the UK).
The basics of handicap racing is this - the better a horse, the more weight it has to carry in a race. The goal of the Official Handicapper is to have every handicap race finish in a dead-heat (i.e proving that he has bought together exactly, the ability of every horse in said race).
...and the goal of every trainer, owner, stable boy and jockey is to try to hoodwink, hide (uner a lead-lined bushel in some cases) and generally muck up the handicappers ability to rate a horse accurately, until the glorious day when Dobbin metamorphs into Pegasus and wins not only the prize money in the race (ludicrously small, but no one is forcing anyone to become a racehorse owner) but also land a right good punt for all the connections.
...and it's the goal of this blog to decipher the bullshit and the skullduggery, the flannel and the blather and make money out of betting in UK handicap races!
Why Handicap Races?
Because at heart I want it all or die trying. I want to walk out of a race either potless or (metaphorically) lighting a Havana with tenners. Nickel and Diming a couple of quid profit backing odds-on favourites appeals to me about as much as playing naked leapfrog with a Unicorn.
Handicap racing is, by definition, close fought and competitive. Extrapolate this to the betting market and it means that the punter will generally have the opportunity to back horses at bigger odds than in straightforward WFA Conditions races. Whilst I will wax lyrical about One Man's Champion Chase, or Persian Punch's last Jockey Club Cup or Frankels astonishing 2000 Guineas, these races stirred the soul - and I didn't have a penny on any of the winners or other protagonists!
I spent the evenings beforehand in several hours of form study on The Coral Cup, The Cesarewitch or The Suffolk Handicap. Why? Because everyone (especially clued-up punters) knows everything about the big races and the betting market reflects this.
But for somone prepared to delve around in the form of the handicaps, he might just come up with an angle that will put him onto a double-figure priced winner, that means he leaves the course with severel hundred quid in his pocket, a glow of satisfaction that he's sorted out a most complex of puzzles.....and has given Admiral Rous a punch in the kisser!
The Blog
Enough self-aggrandising old pony and trap - the practicalities.
I will attempt to publish my thoughts on the big Saturday Handicap races by 10.00 hrs on A Saturday morning. I will also attempt to do the same for big midweek handicap races at the festivals dotted throughout the year.
The key word is 'attempt'. I've got a family and a business to run. I get tired. I go out. I get ill.
But when I commit myself to print, it will be honest opinions and they will be the result of diligent research for up to several hours. Why? Because I cannot bear to be slapdash when it comes to punting.
Also, as I'm a mouthy gobshite, musical snob, lover of a good argument, there will be postings on any other area of life I fancy taking a tilt at. Feel free to have a go back. I'll never criticise anyone's right to an opinion, just the quality of thought behind it.
Okay me breddrin - here we go.....
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